The elegant Buenos Aires, the once enchanting South American capital that captivated the world through tangos and Eva Peron has lost some of its splendour. The Europeans of America are losing their bragging rights in regards to their continental neighbours’ status quo as their elected officials play Russian roulette in domestic and external policy. Standard of living has taken a major tumble and their belle époque is a distant dream. Cristina is dragging the once large and exemplary middle-class, much like her recent predecessor the late Mr. Kirchner himself, into an exclusive endangered species list. Those who are able, opt to cash in on their European ancestry and set up shop in the old country. Those who cannot afford this self-exile are packing up their personal effects, selling the house and moving their wife and kids to live with los viejos. Foreign investment, businesses and trade partnerships are closing up shop, bolting the door and placing a ‘condemned’ sign on their buildings, not looking back on what hindsight indicated as a miscalculated piece of decision-making to ever have come to Argentina.
The government’s official line to its people and beyond is that everything is business as usual. As of September 2011, the Argentine government’s figures pegged inflation at approximately 9.8% whereas the unofficial figure gathered by independent consultant firms painted a more realistic picture of 24%. Of course, the latter figure was considered blasphemous and dissident by the government. Several foreign actors in the Argentine economy do require slightly more convincing, especially as Spain’s shares in YPF are being yanked away into Patagonian hands. It’s not as if the people in the Iberian Peninsula have not had their fair share of crises, with an official unemployment rate that makes Madagascar look like a safer bet. The Peronist government appeals to its electorate masking inward-looking protectionist policies as a patriotic imperative. Just as you will hear crowds chant at a football match, “el que no salta es un inglés.” There is no worse crime than to be a traitor to the albiceleste. This fervour has effectively blinded the people to reality and is spooking the entire private sector. Both elected officials in government and the opposition share the feeling of a growing populism manipulating the population, fueling a sort of homegrown variation of chavismo.
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| General Galtieri speaking to a crowd from the Casa Rosada |
Tips to Avoiding Reality
A similarly bleak state of economic and political affairs existed in the early 1980s. It is almost as if the highly political consciousness of the rio platense is inclined to repeat a 10 year economic rollercoaster cycle, each time with a bigger drop. To better understand the current picture, we just have to click and drag Cristina Fernandez and her cabinet into a different folder and copy-paste General Galtieri and the military junta into our existing one. There is a very eerie resemblance. The military was in absolute control of the country’s institutions and organizations, simultaneously resorting to drastic human rights violations to assert its control. The streets of these populous urban centres imitated the setting of a dystopia or post-apocalyptic movie. Citizens’ movements were restricted by curfews and random home invasions by the secret police were commonplace. It was rather easy to be dubbed as a ‘subversivo’ in those days, as much as it is nowadays to be considered unpatriotic by not giving unconditional support to Argentina in the eyes of the democratically elected regime. Physical repression has simply been replaced with the lack of purchasing power and the right to respectable living standards.
The high-ranking military officials were true masters of strategy. On one occasion, they managed to win a bid to host the 1978 FIFA World Cup. The Argentines were too busy cheering for Mario Kempes and the white and sky blues as they took on the big names in international football. Sport was the opium of the masses. Meanwhile, many of their compatriots were being dragged out of their homes or snatched off the sidewalk into the Naval Engineers’ School for ‘questioning’, never to be seen again. However, the tournament was not long enough of a distraction, lasting only one month. A major crisis that placed blame for the country’s woes in an outsider was crucial. A clear-cut, tangible achieved end goal visible to all. What better scapegoat to distract their people than the English? Those foreign pirates stole the Falkland Islands from their rightful owners during a time of peace and good bilateral relations in 1833. This was a true act of unwarranted aggression. A woman was in charge at Downing Street and the houses of parliament, so it would be a piece of cake to retake what was rightfully Argentina’s. Galtieri could already imagine all the monuments that were going to be erected in his honour. No woman would stand up to a man in uniform. The result of such a miscalculated military decision turned out to be Argentina’s own Vietnam and a massive political triumph for Thatcher. The military was unable to hide such a major embarrassment, forcing them to step down and facilitate a transition to democracy.
To mark the 30th Anniversary of this terrible loss of life, the voice of Cristina has resonated across the Pampasto Cartagena and beyond, regurgitating the rhetoric of her military predecessor of “fuera piratas!” A barking dog doesn’t bite, but neither does a toothless one. Her government has gone above and beyond to give the Union Jack enough of a headache in the region, not allowing boats baring the Falklands flag or British vessels to dock in their ports. Furthermore, some of their neighbours have followed suit in solidarity. The President has pushed for consensus supporting their Malvinas claim, with some jumping on the bandwagon but other leaders prefer to side with Washington’s desire to maintain amicable relations with the Brits. Ms. Fernandez was vocal in expressing her disappointment with Obama who failed to support a partner in the Americas. This contributed to her premature departure from the OAS Summit in Cartagena, Colombia, somewhat before her original scheduled departure. She cannot respond with force to the British occupation as the Argentine military is not what it used to be back in its heyday. Their budget has decreased exponentially since the end of the dictatorship to avoid the past from repeating itself. Any funding directed to this sector is strictly to pay salaries rather than acquiring armaments and modernizing ageing equipment. A full-scale war is out of the question.
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| March against austerity measures |
What Is Next?
The Argentine people have a strong emotional attachment to their Malvinas. Nearly two centuries have passed since being robbed of their beloved island and this feeling has not subsided. It seems to gain further momentum as time passes. The locals that call their South Atlantic homeland, the Falklands, do not speak Castilian yet on the mainland, this does not matter. It is still Argentina’s territory, only 500 km away from their coast and the only piece of land in South America that remains a colony. President Cristina Fernandez found the perfect panic button to push in her time of desperation. That magic button sends all the real troubles to a trash folder on the national mental computer system.
Cristina will continue her populist agenda, encouraging further protectionism, claiming this to be in the best interests of her country and the economy performance. This will lead to increased isolation and an increasing rapprochement with the regional bad boy club headed by Hugo Chavez. Just this year, we witnessed Argentina’s preferred trading partnership with the United States disappear into thin air due to the stubborn porteño politics. If the goal is to become the South American country with the most trading barriers and highest tariffs, she will be successful during her second term she has barely just kicked off. Unfortunately for Argentina, it can hardly become a self-sufficient economy due to the limited availability of natural resources.
Eventually, whether this applies to Fernandez’s government or her successor, they will be hit with a harsh reality: the voices of their people. As they cried lamenting Evita’s loss, they also have demonstrated that they stand up when they have had enough. Some of us may remember the famous cacerolazo – the traditional beating of cooking pots and pans – popular disturbances amplifying the angry choir of the dissatisfied back in December 2001. These riots breaking out throughout the country marked the culmination of a prolonged financial crisis starting in 1999: an Argentine peso bound to the US dollar, large amounts borrowed by Carlos Menem and a rampant increase in debt due to the rapidly shrinking tax revenue received by the government. Argentina was in the red, owing $130 billion US – a third of all moneys owed by the entire developing world. The mobs chewed up leader after leader – one of them having to flee the Casa Rosada by helicopter – from the Plaza de Mayo until they were truly convinced someone would continue to govern looking after their interest.
Photo credits
Image 1 - Prensa Libre
Image 2 - Veja.br
Image 3 - Press TV
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